“Our research highlights that traditional forest valuation methods, often based on fixed timber prices, fail to capture the financial uncertainty caused by fluctuating markets and growing wildfire danger,” said Susaeta. “By integrating both wildfire risk and timber price volatility into forest management models, policymakers can design smarter tax systems, insurance programs and carbon market incentives that adapt to the changing conditions we are seeing and that are expected to worsen.” To improve outcomes, the team recommends fuel reduction strategies, improved salvage logging, wildfire-adjusted insurance programs, adaptive zoning, cooperative fuel management and diversified forest composition. These approaches could help balance economic returns, wildfire resilience and climate goals as fire risks continue to rise. Read more: beav.es/S9c Some carbon projects are actually harmful to climate; study shows how to avoid that A study led by scientists in Oregon State University’s College of Forestry found that about 10% of forest-based carbon credit projects may contribute to net climate warming once changes in Earth’s albedo — the reflection of sunlight — are considered. Led by OSU graduate student Lynn Riley and Assistant Professor Jacob Bukoski, the research analyzed 172 afforestation, revegetation and reforestation projects across five continents funded through the Voluntary Carbon Market. Collaborators included researchers from Clark University and Susan CookPatton from The Nature Conservancy, as well as OSU faculty Loren Albert and Chris Still. While most projects showed relatively small albedo impacts, the study found that albedo changes across the 172 projects reduced climate benefits by a median of 18%, and in some cases completely negated carbon gains. In other projects, albedo benefits were not fully accounted for, suggesting they may deliver greater climate benefits than currently credited. Current carbon crediting protocols largely ignore non–greenhouse gas climate effects, however this research provides recommendations for how to avoid this unintended climate warming. “What’s really exciting is that we have independent, accessible data with global coverage to start preventing this today,” Riley said. “It’s something that actors across the market — project developers, buyers, ratings agencies, policymakers — could begin to relatively simply and transparently incorporate into their workflows. That will help climate financing flow to the most impactful projects.” Carbon crediting projects have taken lots of criticism in recent years, says Bukoski, but one thing they have done well is evolved with the best available science. “It’s encouraging to see opportunities for more holistic accounting of the climate impacts from forestry projects,” Bukoski said. Read more: beav.es/S9A 13 FOCUS - SPRING 2026
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